Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings & Projections
2010 First Base Preseason Preview
Justin Morneau
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Former MVP Morneau is capable
of putting up big numbers, but he is likely to be overvalued
in the draft. |
7. Justin Morneau - Twins - 2010 Preview:
He looked to be one of the top first basemens in fantasy baseball
after his 2006 MVP performance in which he batted .321 with 34 home
runs and 130 RBI's, but he has never matched those numbers, let
alone improved upon them. Furthermore his .274 average, 30 home
runs and 100 RBI's ranked well below some free agent pick ups such
as Kendra Morales. With that said, when Morneau is 100% healthy
he is good for 25 to 35 home runs and 110 to 120 RBI's and that
keeps high in the first basemen rankings, though he is no longer
with the big boys.
2009 Statistics:
.274 - 30 HR's - 100 RBI's - 85 Runs
2010 Projection: .288
- 32 HR's - 109 RBI's - 92 Runs
8. Pablo Sandoval - Giants - 2010 Preview:
If you are a gambler, you may want to role the dice on 23-year-old
slugger Pablo Sandoval. He batted .345 with just 145 at bats in
his first season and followed it with a .330 batting average as
a full-time starter in 2009. One of the downsides to drafting any
San Francisco Giant has been their lousy offense, but it took a
step up in 2009 and they added some solid hitting veterans for the
2010 season including Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sánchez, and Mark
DeRosa. Sandoval is the poor mans Albert Pujols. He can hit for
average and power and he doesn't strikeout that much (83 in '09).
He posted a .387 on-base-percentage in his second season (Pujols
was at .394 in his second full season). In addition, he had 44 doubles,
5 triples and 5 stolen bases.
2010 Statistics:
.274 - 25 HR's - 80 RBI's - 73 Runs
2010 Projection: .288
- 26 HR's - 92 RBI's - 82 Runs
9. Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox - 2010 Preview:
He picked up where he left off from his 2008 breakout season and
would have done as well in 2009 if not for injury. Youkilis is in
the same tier as Adrian Gonzales and Justin Morneau, but you may
be able to get him a round lower than them. The fact that he will
be in the middle of the Boston lineup insures that he will have
good RBI and run totals and see plenty of good pitches. In addition
he will qualify as a third basemen and that should up his draft
value a bit.
2009 Statistics:
.306 - 27 HR's - 94 RBI's - 99 Runs
2010 Projection: .305
- 28 HR's - 101 RBI's - 95 Runs
10. Mark Reynolds - D'Backs - 2010 Preview:
Reynolds is one of the players it is hard to put a finger on. His
2009 season has him ranked right there with the top-five first basemens
in fantasy baseball (though he will be the Diamondbacks starting
third basemen his 28 games at first base should qualify him in most
leagues), but he has little else to go off of other than his 2008
season when he hit 28 home runs while batting a lowly .239. You
add that to his record-setting 232 strikeouts and there are reasons
to be concerned, but in the end he hit 44 home runs and stole 28
bases and those are fantasy-stud numbers.
2009 Statistics:
.260 - 44 HR's - 102 RBI's - 98 Runs
2010 Projection: .255
- 37 HR's - 97 RBI's - 91 Runs
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Best of the Rest
Joey Votto - Reds
He took a step up (.322, 25 home runs) which is exactly what you
want to see with a talent like Votto. He could still take another
step up and become an elite first basemen in 2010 at a cheaper draft
price.
Derek Lee - Cubs
The veteran continues to produce and surprised most by smacking
35 home runs and 111 RBI's with just 532 at bats. He is not likely
to do that again and Micah Hoffpauir will push him for time, but
you can't argue with the stats.
Kendry Morales - Angels
The 26-year-old broke out in 2009 by batting .306 with 36 home runs
and 108 RBI's. That is good enough to rank above Justin Morneau,
but he has to prove himself and thus there is some risk in drafting
him high.
Chris Davis - Texas Rangers
The big-time first half fantasy bust (to the point of being demoted
to the minors), finished the season strong and ended up with a .238
average and 21 home runs with his 391 at bats. Davis strikeouts
way too much and isn't much of a hitter, but unlike Adam Dunn and
Carlos Pena, who have the same issue, at age 24 Davis has time and
potential to improve. He showed this at the the end of the 2009
season by batting .308 with six home runs with his 138 at bats and
the best news of all, he struck out at a lower rate.
Adam Dunn - Nationals
Anybody who can hit 40 home runs is worth a starting spot. He hit
38 home runs in 2009 after five consecutive 40+ seasons. His average
was up to .267 in 2009 which is great for the .249 lifetime hitter.
Naturally in points leagues beware of his strikeouts (177).
Lance Berkman - Astros
The veteran will turn 34 before the season starts and he is starting
to show signs of wear. He missed several games with injury and finished
under 100 RBI's for only the third time in his nine years as a full-time
starter. More worrisome was his dip in batting average to .274.
The career .299 hitter has now seen his average fall below .280
in two of the last three seasons. A healthy Berkman and a strong
Astro offense could easily propel him back to his .300, 30 home
run, 100 RBI norm, but expect no more than a solid season from the
veteran and draft accordingly.
Carlos Pena - Rays
See Adam Dunn. He did bat .282 with 46 home runs in 2007, so there
is some hope for improvement from his .227, 39 home run season of
2009.
Bargain Veteran:
Todd Helton - Rockies
Bargain Baby:
Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals